Last week, our predictive model saw ‘rain on the horizon’ for Sunday, April 26. Based on historical data, we expected to see a significant dip in discharges compared to admissions.

“Knowing what we were headed for, we planned and acted differently than we normally would,” said Vice President People, Practice and Quality Petrina McGrath who was the vice president on-call this past weekend.

Data snapshot forecast of admission to discharge ratios for Royal University Hospital

The data snapshot forecast shows an admission to discharge ratio of 2.33 or 233% at Royal University Hospital for Sunday, April 26, 2015

“For instance, the on-call team rounded to ensure unit staff had what they needed to keep things flowing. We also helped redirect patients from Royal University Hospital to St. Paul’s Hospital to keep the sites balanced.”

As a result, the numbers didn’t play out as expected and discharges were actually higher than admissions. “It still made for a busy weekend and I’m very proud of our staff who cared for patients efficiently and safely without opening up any temporary pods,” she said.

The Region’s predictive model is currently achieving 94% accuracy rate. Team 3 from the ’90 Days of Innovation Ready Every Day’ initiative is working to further refine the forecasting tool.

Saskatoon Health Region's Royal University Hospital Emergency Department

Royal University Hospital Emergency Department